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The IR35 MP hit list - The 100 politicians most likely to lose their seats

Last December research conducted by ContractorCalculator identified the MPs for whom it will prove most costly to lose the self-employed vote, and published the top 20 from each party. The results were based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and contractor sentiment indicated by a previous ContractorCalculator survey.

The full results of this research are now published, with the top 100 MPs, ordered by risk of losing their seat, due to the Off-payroll (IR35) reforms that Treasury, HMRC and the Chancellor are attempting to push through Parliament.

In total, 85 MPs hold a majority in Parliament that would feasibly be overturned if the expected turnout of IR35-opposing self-employed voters from their constituency were to vote against them, and we list the next 15, making 100 in total, that are potentially under threat if the self-employed voter turnout is higher than expected.

"This single piece of damaging policy could prove catastrophic for all parties involved, not least the Tories, who make up 43% of the at-risk seats,” comments ContractorCalculator CEO, Dave Chaplin. “There is also potentially a lot to gain for some, but those in precarious positions will have to act swiftly and earnestly to win over contractors’ trust.”

How we identified the at-risk MPs

The research leveraged the data and compared the MPs majority at the last election with the likely number of self-employed voters in their area who would turn out and vote against them.

Who are the potential IR35 political casualties?

Of the vulnerable MPs, there are 43 Conservative, 33 Labour, and 7 Liberal Democrat politicians. Given the fine margins, the self-employed vote will prove crucial to either party’s fortunes at the next General Election.

“The Conservatives appear to have a lot more to lose than Labour,” comments Chaplin. “They now face an uphill task if they want to save their seats."

The 100 politicians most likely to lose their seats

Rank MP Constituency Party Parliamentary majority Number of shifting self-employed voters
1 Stephen Gethins North East Fife SNP 2 1,782
2 Emma Dent Coad Kensington Lab 20 4,939
3 Zac Goldsmith Richmond Park Con 45 9,263
4 Pete Wishart Perth and North Perthshire SNP 21 2,146
5 Royston Smith Southampton, Itchen Con 31 2,460
6 Laura Smith Crewe and Nantwich Lab 48 2,903
7 Ian Austin Dudley North Lab 22 1,045
8 Paul Farrelly Newcastle-under-Lyme Lab 30 949
9 Ben Lake Ceredigion PC 104 2,658
10 Rosie Duffield Canterbury Lab 187 3,883
11 Chris Stephens Glasgow South West SNP 60 1,212
12 Hywel Williams Arfon PC 92 1,738
13 Derek Thomas St Ives Con 312 5,421
14 Stephen Kerr Stirling Con 148 2,330
15 Theresa Villiers Chipping Barnet Con 353 5,137
16 John Grogan Keighley Lab 239 3,264
17 Amber Rudd Hastings and Rye Con 346 4,007
18 Angela Crawley Lanark and Hamilton East SNP 266 2,592
19 Jackie Doyle-Price Thurrock Con 345 3,345
20 Stephen Crabb Preseli Pembrokeshire Con 314 3,003
21 David Drew Stroud Lab 687 4,452
22 Matthew Offord Hendon Con 1,072 6,349
23 Gerard Killen Rutherglen and Hamilton West Lab 265 1,525
24 Stuart Andrew Pudsey Con 331 1,820
25 Neil Gray Airdrie and Shotts SNP 195 1,044
26 John Woodcock Barrow and Furness Lab 209 1,074
27 Chloe Smith Norwich North Con 507 2,521
28 Thelma Walker Colne Valley Lab 915 4,245
29 Craig Whittaker Calder Valley Con 609 2,697
30 Gloria de Piero Ashfield Lab 441 1,882
31 Tim Farron Westmorland and Lonsdale Lib Dem 777 3,168
32 Marion Fellows Motherwell and Wishaw SNP 318 1,266
33 Paul Sweeney Glasgow North East Lab 242 935
34 Lesley Laird Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lab 259 996
35 Fiona Onasanya Peterborough Lab 607 2,288
36 Layla Moran Oxford West and Abingdon Lib Dem 816 2,918
37 Justine Greening Putney Con 1,554 5,264
38 Matt Western Warwick and Leamington Lab 1,206 3,960
39 Mike Freer Finchley and Golders Green Con 1,657 5,143
40 Sandy Martin Ipswich Lab 836 2,584
41 Bob Blackman Harrow East Con 1,757 5,246
42 Mohammed Yasin Bedford Lab 789 2,348
43 Stephen Lloyd Eastbourne Lib Dem 1,609 4,715
44 Jack Brereton Stoke-on-Trent South Con 663 1,917
45 Michael Ellis Northampton North Con 807 2,286
46 Helen Goodman Bishop Auckland Lab 502 1,411
47 Guto Bebb Aberconwy Con 635 1,705
48 Anna Soubry Broxtowe Con 863 2,315
49 Chris Green Bolton West Con 936 2,473
50 Ronnie Cowan Inverclyde SNP 384 976
51 Paul Williams Stockton South Lab 888 2,093
52 Mark Field Cities of London and Westminster Con 3,148 6,339
53 George Eustice Camborne and Redruth Con 1,577 3,157
54 Brendon O'Hara Argyll and Bute SNP 1,328 2,593
55 Patrick Grady Glasgow North SNP 1,060 2,069
56 Lucy Allan Telford Con 720 1,382
57 Douglas Chapman Dunfermline and West Fife SNP 844 1,618
58 Tom Brake Carshalton and Wallington Lib Dem 1,369 2,561
59 David Morris Morecambe and Lunesdale Con 1,399 2,543
60 Ben Bradley Mansfield Con 1,057 1,865
61 Stewart McDonald Glasgow South SNP 2,027 3,534
62 Angela Smith Penistone and Stocksbridge Lab 1,322 2,292
63 Iain Duncan Smith Chingford and Woodford Green Con 2,438 3,698
64 Danielle Rowley Midlothian Lab 885 1,299
65 Richard Harrington Watford Con 2,092 3,056
66 Philippa Whitford Central Ayrshire SNP 1,267 1,824
67 Simon Clarke Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Con 1,020 1,451
68 Tom Pursglove Corby Con 2,690 3,720
69 Mark Lancaster Milton Keynes North Con 1,915 2,631
70 Deidre Brock Edinburgh North and Leith SNP 1,625 2,198
71 Iain Stewart Milton Keynes South Con 1,725 2,326
72 Karen Lee Lincoln Lab 1,538 2,023
73 Alex Chalk Cheltenham Con 2,569 3,366
74 Andrew Stephenson Pendle Con 1,279 1,657
75 Faisal Rashid Warrington South Lab 2,549 3,299
76 Andrew Lewer Northampton South Con 1,159 1,497
77 Stephen Morgan Portsmouth South Lab 1,554 1,973
78 Joanna Cherry Edinburgh South West SNP 1,097 1,360
79 Alun Cairns Vale of Glamorgan Con 2,190 2,704
80 Peter Heaton-Jones North Devon Con 4,332 5,222
81 Trudy Harrison Copeland Con 1,695 2,043
82 Andrea Jenkins Morley and Outwood Con 2,104 2,346
83 Sarah Newton Truro and Falmouth Con 3,792 4,197
84 Christine Jardine Edinburgh West Lib Dem 2,988 3,074
85 Robert Goodwill Scarborough and Whitby Con 3,435 3,457
86 Colin Clark Gordon Con 2,607 2,581
87 Jared O'Mara Sheffield, Hallam Lab 2,125 2,091
88 Chris Williamson Derby North Lab 2,015 1,978
89 Eleanor Smith Wolverhampton South West Lab 2,185 2,041
90 Damien Moore Southport Con 2,914 2,709
91 Alison Thewliss Glasgow Central SNP 2,267 2,082
92 Bambos Charalambous Enfield, Southgate Lab 4,355 3,958
93 Matt Rodda Reading East Lab 3,749 3,403
94 Marsha De Cordova Battersea Lab 2,416 2,192
95 Martin Whitfield East Lothian Lab 3,083 2,768
96 Ruth Smeeth Stoke-on-Trent North Lab 2,359 2,118
97 Norman Lamb North Norfolk Lib Dem 3,512 3,136
98 Paula Sherriff Dewsbury Lab 3,321 2,963
99 Edward Davey Kingston and Surbiton Lib Dem 4,124 3,659
100 Mary Creagh Wakefield Con 2,176 1,902

Join our IR35 campaign - lobby your MP

To support the campaign against IR35 changes, please subscribe to our mailing list, and help raise awareness by following the instructions set out on our IR35 campaign page. Please follow or connect with our CEO Dave Chaplin on LinkedIn. Dave regularly posts about the IR35 reforms and is an essential contact to have for keeping abreast of the latest news surrounding the legislation.

Meetings with MPs are essential. We have prepared a 32 page fact pack to assist you with your meeting. Just email your MP name to us on info@contractorcalculator.co.uk and we will send you the information. Then you simply prepare, and meet your MP for 30 minutes.

The need for decisive action is now urgent, as the next HMRC consultation is due to be published in February 2019. ContractorCalculator is also looking to ramp up its own campaigning efforts, for which it requires financial support. If you are able to, then please contribute to the campaign

Published: Friday, 4 January 2019

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